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As the midterms draw ever nearer, President Donald Trump has frequently touted his economic wins since retaking the White House, in hopes of boosting votes for the Republican Party. But a survey released by NBC News suggests most Americans don’t believe him. Trump has said he inherited high costs from his predecessor but that they’re coming down. So, either prices are coming down, or the economy is sinking – but which one is it?
By the Numbers – Are We Paying More or Less?
As Liberty Nation News’ Andrew Moran reported recently, the annual core inflation was above 3% when the Fed lowered interest rates right before the 2024 presidential election. Now, after nearly two years of Trump, that number sits at 2.4% – the lowest it has been since March of 2021, just a few months into former President Joe Biden’s single term.
Okay, so inflation is looking a little better. How about fuel prices? With Trump’s war in Iran dragging on, we’re feeling the pain at the pump. Well, turns out that’s a bit of a mixed bag. Yes, gas is high right now – but it isn’t as high as it has been. The worst price we’ve seen at the pump under this presidency was a national average of $4.50 in May of this year, several months into the fight against Iran. But the price of gas is actually down a little from that, with a national average of $4.4386 as of Sept. 17. And even that high several months ago was 50 cents lower than Biden’s high of $5 a gallon.
“I inherited very, very high costs, and they’re all coming down now,” Trump told Fox News in an interview. “The food, the groceries, it’s all coming down. With a few exceptions, prices have been going up since Trump began his second term in January 2025, official federal data shows,” according to PolitiFact.
Eggs Look Great for Trump
As seems to be the case with most things, the nonpartisan truth is a bit messier than either side wants to admit. Tracking Bureau of Labor Statistics data, we can look at the cost of specific grocery and household items and how those prices fluctuate over time.
The average price of a loaf of bread has fallen about ten cents since Trump took office, while a one-pound block of cheddar rose in that same span almost a dollar. Beef is a big one in the news – and prices have been on the rise since 2023. Since President Trump took back the White House, a pound of ground chuck has gone up more than a dollar – though it is currently down from June’s high. Then there’s chicken. The price of poultry is up about 30% from when Biden took office in 2021 – but it’s down a few cents so far under Trump.
Eggs look great for Trump. Yes, the five-year chart looks a little crazy, what with the two eggmagedon spikes of early 2023 and 2025. But the one-year chart under Trump shows the price fell by more than half. Coffee is down from its high in April, but it’s up almost $2 a pound from when Biden left office. Toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, and other paper goods are tracked together by the BLS, not separately. In what is news to probably no one, this category is up quite a bit from the pandemic. In the last year, however, they’ve been pretty stable, with average prices increasing only by about 0.1%. Milk, though, has risen about 20 cents a gallon since Trump took office.
Why It Matters
When it comes to what people really feel directly – the bill at the grocery store and the gas pump – are we better or worse off than when Trump took over, or before he got involved in Iran? The truth isn’t quite as clean as the soundbites. Then again, it probably isn’t as important, either. Come Election Day, perception is reality.
4 Questions
The story, in brief
What did the NBC News survey say about Donald Trump's economic claims?
The survey suggested most Americans do not believe Donald Trump's claims about his economic wins. Trump has said he inherited high costs and that prices are coming down, but the polling showed the public was not persuaded by that message as the midterms approached.
How have inflation and gas prices changed under Donald Trump?
Annual core inflation was above 3% when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates before the 2024 presidential election, and it now sits at 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021. Gas prices are still high, but they are below the Trump-era peak of a $4.50 national average in May and stood at $4.4386 on Sept. 17.
Which grocery prices fell and rose during Donald Trump's second term?
Some prices fell while others rose. Bread dropped about ten cents, poultry fell a few cents, and eggs fell by more than half over the one-year chart under Trump. Cheddar rose almost a dollar, ground chuck rose more than a dollar, coffee is up almost $2 a pound from when Biden left office, and milk rose about 20 cents a gallon.
Why might voters still think Donald Trump's economy is hurting them?
The article says people feel the economy most directly through grocery bills and gas prices, where the picture is mixed rather than clear. Some costs have improved, but others remain elevated or have increased, and that makes public perception powerful heading into Election Day.
