★ In this story 03
The tab is getting full: $2,000 DOGE rebates, $9,000 to be a stay-at-home parent, and now $5,000 checks if Republicans win the midterm elections. President Donald Trump, his administration, and many GOP lawmakers are being serious about giving the American people thousands of dollars after November.
$5,000 Checks for All
President Trump got quite the reaction when he announced $5,000 checks on night one of the midterm Republican National Convention in Dallas, Texas. While it drew scorn and mockery across news networks and social media platforms, US officials on the right appeared earnest enough to support the proposal.
Shortly after the president’s remarks, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News anchor Bret Baier that the United States is generating an "extraordinary amount of revenue" by "standing up to" foreign companies and countries "who've been taking advantage of America's workers for pretty much my entire life." Vance seems to believe the money will come from tariffs.
In an interview with CBS News Texas, the president said the United States has "taken in trillions of dollars in tariffs and other things." While tariffs have not generated close to that number, if you include a blanket "other things" in the equation, he may be accurate (more on that later).
Meanwhile, Fox personality Laura Ingraham asked a simple question: Why not offer this tariff dividend now? Why wait until after the November election? Trump's response:
"Because the Democrats can’t do it. Because for them, it’s negative growth. With us, it’s so positive. So, we’re taking in $21 trillion. No country has ever taken in anywhere near that. It’s four or five times higher than the next one. All because of the beautiful word you and I love more than most others – tariffs.”
So, should Republicans hold both chambers of Congress, what happens next?
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) appears willing to move ahead with Trump's $5,000 checks. At the convention, he told Fox News he plans to introduce legislation, but with strings attached. The dividend would be funded by a new "market access fee" on foreign firms selling products in the United States, and the cash could be spent only in the United States. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), meanwhile, says the proposal would likely need to pass through budget reconciliation. In the Senate, the minority party – that’s the Democrats these days – can filibuster a bill and hold up legislation until it can get 60 votes to pass. Since the Democrats probably won’t support this bill, the budget reconciliation process could bypass that possibility if enough Republicans get behind it.
Got $1 Trillion?
Let’s get down to the brass tacks. How much would this plan cost? Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest the price tag would be more than $1 trillion.
Economists at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget crunched the numbers and estimated that one-time $5,000 checks would cost more than all three pandemic-era economic impact payments combined. It would also revive inflation pressures and raise interest rates, something the country is already facing due to the war in Iran.
"With the economy already operating near potential, this cash infusion would boost demand and likely generate additional inflation. The policy would also likely boost interest rates, as the Federal Reserve responded to higher inflation and the markets to higher debt," they wrote. "The result would be significantly more debt and a higher cost of living for ordinary households."
Critics often cite the $40 trillion national debt and $2 trillion budget deficit as cause for concern. But the claim that tariffs alone can pay for these checks is fallacious.
So far this fiscal year, the US government has collected nearly $308 billion in customs duties, taxes, and fees, according to the Sept. 8 Daily Treasury Statement. The White House might note that the Supreme Court's decision to strike down a large chunk of President Trump's Liberation Day tariff regime has reduced tariff income. However, even prior to the February 2026 ruling, these levies were projected to generate between $1 and $2 trillion over a ten-year budget window rather than one year.
Ask Alan Greenspan
US Treasury bond yields are soaring to their highest levels since the Global Financial Crisis. Market watchers blame this on growing fiscal fears, while others say persistent war-driven inflation is causing investors to price in tighter Federal Reserve policy.
Many are skeptical that the president will deliver on this new promise. But if he does, the American people need to remember the words from former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, who told NBC’s Meet the Press two decades ago: “The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that."
