★ In this story 03
Where Ukraine stands in its defense of its homeland from the Russian invasion is a mixed bag. The five-year war has gone on longer than what Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, planned for. Remember, on Feb. 4, 2022, Moscow’s intent was a rapid thrust through Ukraine from the north and the east to take the country in four or five days, two weeks at the most. The Kremlin did not count on Ukrainians being such effective fighters.
Ukraine Was to Be Defeated in a Few Days
The rapid invasion has since become a five-year battle in which each side tries to destroy the other’s soldiers, energy, and war-making infrastructure. The ground battle is a combination of territorial gains and losses.
Recently, Russia has taken the brunt of the fighting. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, DC-based think tank, “ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized [68 square miles] but lost [99 square miles] of territory in Ukraine in September 2026 for a net loss of [31 square miles] – an average pace of [1 square mile] per day.”
These numbers differ significantly from the ones Russian President Vladimir Putin has been spreading. ISW observed, “Putin claimed Russian frontline gains in September 2026 so far from reality as to resemble hallucinations.” Ukrainian forces are clearly holding their own. Russia is no longer making territorial gains. Instead, the battles are slogging fights in which Ukraine has regained most of what Kremlin forces achieved in early 2026.
The conflict can also be judged by the casualties each side is sustaining. The Economist noted that as of Oct. 4, the number of Russians killed is about 516,000. If you combine that with casualties – dead and wounded – the number is about 1.7 million.
Combat Casualties Are High
The Center for Strategic and International Studies in January 2026 observed:
“Russian battlefield casualties and fatalities are significantly greater than Ukrainian casualties and fatalities — with a ratio of roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1. Ukrainian forces likely suffered somewhere between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including killed, wounded, and missing, and between 100,000 and 140,000 fatalities between February 2022 and December 2025.”
In terms of dead and wounded, Russia is losing the conflict. For the Kremlin, however, the lives of its soldiers are clearly a currency Putin is willing to spend.
Military Aid Continues to Flow
The flow of military aid to Ukraine has not stopped. According to Defense News, “The Trump administration has made legally binding commitments to spend almost all of the $400 million Congress approved for military aid to Ukraine late last year,” while the US State Department approved a $2.7 billion sale of air-defense systems to be financed by European allies and partners. NATO nations are also ponying up large donations to Ukraine’s war effort. Germany has pledged substantial funding for Ukraine, to the tune of $1.5 billion, providing long-range strike weapons, satellite technology, and combat drones.
A new round of peace talks is being discussed for October. However, nothing in the public conversation suggests any breakthroughs are expected. US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in Moscow in early September to discuss restarting talks stalled since the last negotiations in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in January and February 2026, respectively. The issue is that Putin has a line that identifies the territory Russia holds, and he wants legal recognition of more ground than it occupies. Ukraine is having none of that. That’s where things stand.
~
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
4 Questions
The story, in brief
How has the Ukraine war gone differently from Vladimir Putin's original plan?
Moscow intended a rapid attack from the north and east to take Ukraine in four or five days, or two weeks at most. Instead, the invasion turned into a five-year war because Ukrainian fighters proved far more effective than the Kremlin expected. The conflict is now a grinding battle over troops, energy systems, and war-making infrastructure.
Is Russia still gaining territory in Ukraine in 2026?
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces seized 68 square miles in September 2026 but lost 99 square miles, for a net loss of 31 square miles. The group said Putin's public claims about frontline gains were far from reality. Ukrainian forces are holding their own and have regained most of what Russian forces achieved in early 2026.
What do casualty figures show about Russia and Ukraine in the war?
The Economist reported that as of Oct. 4, about 516,000 Russians had been killed, and total Russian casualties, dead and wounded, were about 1.7 million. The Center for Strategic and International Studies said Russian battlefield casualties and fatalities have been significantly greater than Ukraine's, at roughly a 2.5 to 1 or 2 to 1 ratio. It estimated Ukrainian casualties between 500,000 and 600,000, including 100,000 to 140,000 fatalities, from February 2022 to December 2025.
What military aid and peace talks are shaping the next phase of the Ukraine war?
US military aid is continuing, with legally binding commitments for almost all of the $400 million Congress approved late last year, and the State Department approved a $2.7 billion air-defense sale financed by European allies and partners. Germany also pledged $1.5 billion in support, including long-range strike weapons, satellite technology, and combat drones. New peace talks are being discussed for October, but no public signs point to a breakthrough because Putin wants legal recognition of more territory than Russia occupies, and Ukraine rejects that.
Dave Patterson
National Security Correspondent at LibertyNation.Com and Generation Liberty, Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. Dave’s articles have appeared in The Federalist and DefenseOne.com.
