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With the midterm elections right around the corner, political polls are all over the headlines. Who’s leading in the various individual competitions? Which party will control Congress? How’s the president doing in the eyes of the people? Some watch the polls and expect they’ll accurately predict the outcome in November. Well, sometimes they do. But quite frequently they do not. It’s important to understand what these surveys really are and what they are not.
Bad News for Republicans
Liberty Nation News collects, compares, and publishes numerous political polls each day, tracking a variety of issues. LNN’s The Public Square is what’s called an aggregator – which tracks individual polls by different organizations and gives an average.
The data for Sunday, Oct. 4, looks like bad news for Republicans. Across a total of 490 polls collected, the Liberty Nation Average is 60.1% disapproval for President Donald Trump’s job performance to just 38.1% approval. And that’s not a new development. A look at the trend line shows a greater disapproval than approval rating for at least the last three months.
It’s a similar outlook for the direction the country is going in: 62.5% wrong direction to 31.2% right. And while a few polls show Republicans and Democrats tied in likely control of Congress after the midterm elections, most favor Democrats. The Liberty Nation Average is 50.8% to 42.4%.
RealClear Polling, another aggregator, shows similar results for the weekend. President Trump’s approval rating is just 39% on RCP, and Democrats are considered likely to retake Congress 54% to 45%.
Polls Aren’t Elections
So, does this mean Nov. 3 will bring bad news to Republicans? Not necessarily. For one thing, when it comes to the direction the country is going and presidential performance, the public is almost always disappointed. Rarely do such polls show a positive approval – especially at this point in a presidency – regardless of who’s president.
President Ronald Reagan suffered a 42% approval rating during his first midterms, and he turned it around and won re-election two years later by a landslide. President Bill Clinton suffered negative approval in 1994 but won re-election in 1996, and President Barack Obama did the same in 2012 after being underwater on approval at the midterms in 2010. And President George W. Bush won re-election in 2004 with the reverse case: His approval at the 2002 midterms was at 68% compared to just 48% at the 2004 election.
Negative midterm approval does often result in the president’s party losing Congress, though. And that’s what Republicans are more worried about right now. But even then, all is not always as it seems with political polls.
Back in 2016, most polls famously showed Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump in the presidential election. As we know now, of course, that isn’t how it turned out. Clinton did win the popular vote, by about 1%, but lost in the Electoral College by quite a lot.
Today, Roger Marshall, the Republican senator from Kansas, is facing a tight race with his Democrat challenger, Adam Hamilton, if the polls are to be believed. But will the people of the Sunflower State send a Democrat to the Senate instead? The polls weren’t very favorable to Marshall in 2020, either, with people predicting a much tighter race. Instead, he won by 11.4 points – nothing close about that. So, why the disconnect?
Why It Matters – And How It Really Works
And this highlights what is perhaps the bigger issue: Some states are controlled enough by one party that the chances of someone from the other one winning a national election are almost nonexistent. Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932 – and it probably won’t in 2026.
As for that 2016 polling confusion, two things played into that. First, presidents aren’t elected by popular vote. They’re elected by the electoral votes of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state has as many electors as it has senators and representatives in Congress, which means the elector count is divided up by population. So, while the big cities in one state might mean more individual votes for the candidate popular there, a majority of states might choose the other one.
Democrats frequently win the most densely populated areas – and that means they tend to win those states. But there are more rural states than urban states in this country, and that makes a difference. That’s the safeguard that prevents whoever wins New York and California from becoming president automatically.
4 Questions
The story, in brief
What did Liberty Nation and RealClear polling averages show for Republicans?
Liberty Nation’s average of 490 polls showed 60.1% disapproval and 38.1% approval for President Donald Trump’s job performance. It also showed 62.5% saying the country was on the wrong track and Democrats leading Republicans 50.8% to 42.4% on likely control of Congress. RealClear Polling showed similar results, with Trump at 39% approval and Democrats favored 54% to 45%.
Why does the article say political polls do not always predict elections?
Political polls can miss outcomes because they measure public opinion at a moment in time, not actual votes on Election Day. The text notes that presidents often have weak midterm approval yet still win re-election later, and it points to 2016, when most polls showed Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump even though Trump won the Electoral College.
How can a candidate lose the popular vote but still win the presidency?
Presidents are not elected by the national popular vote, they are elected by electoral votes from the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state’s elector count is based on its senators and representatives, so winning more states can matter more than winning the biggest population centers. That is why a candidate can lose the popular vote and still win the presidency.
What happens next for Republicans despite weak poll numbers before Nov. 3?
The polling averages suggest Republicans could face losses, especially in the fight for control of Congress. But the text says that outcome is not certain, because negative midterm approval does not always decide later results and some states remain strongly aligned with one party. The final result depends on how votes are cast, not only on poll averages.
